Nearshoring to Mexico is accelerating faster than China+1
SupplyChainUS-Mexico trade grew 5% in 2024 while US-China fell 3%. Manufacturing FDI into Mexico up 40% YoY. Proximity, USMCA benefits, and geopolitical risks are driving a structural shift.
Bull Case
- +
Mexico now #1 US trading partner at $800B annually, surpassing China
US Census Bureau Trade Data 2024
- +
$30B+ in new manufacturing investments announced in 2024 across automotive, electronics
Mexico Ministry of Economy FDI Report
- +
Shipping costs 60% lower and lead times 75% faster vs. Asia
Freightos Supply Chain Index
Bear Case
- -
Infrastructure bottlenecks at US-Mexico border causing delays
Texas A&M Transportation Institute
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Security concerns and cartel activity in industrial zones
US State Department Travel Advisory 2024
- -
Water scarcity in northern Mexico limiting semiconductor and manufacturing growth
World Bank Mexico Water Crisis Report
Related Companies
VLRS
Vontier Corporation
Transportation infrastructure and mobility tech for Mexico
UNP
Union Pacific
Major Mexico rail network and cross-border freight
GXO
GXO Logistics
Mexico warehousing and distribution growth
ALSN
Allison Transmission
Mexico commercial vehicle transmission manufacturing
Key Catalysts
Apr 1, 2025
USMCA 5-year review and potential updates
Jul 1, 2025
Tesla Gigafactory Mexico production ramp begins
Oct 15, 2025
US-Mexico border infrastructure bill expected passage
Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. ThesisSwipe provides research and analysis but does not recommend any specific investment decisions. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before investing.
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